Economics
0.0000
0.0500
0.1000
0.1500 oz/barrel
1990
2000
2010
2020
Oil Priced in Gold
Barrels of oil per troy oz of gold
Source: Yahoo (GC=F), FRED (DCOILWTICO)
0.00000
0.00100
0.00200
0.00300
0.00400 oz/$
1990
2000
2010
2020
Dollar Priced in Gold
Troy oz of gold per US dollar
Source: Yahoo (GC=F)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Macro-trends
Source: FRED, Yahoo (^SOX, ^XOI)
● 10y−2y treasury spread
● NASDAQ (log-indexed)
● SOX semiconductors (log, anchored to NASDAQ at 1994)
● XOI energy sector (log, anchored to NASDAQ at 1985)
● Unemployment (indexed to Jan 2020)
● Fed funds rate ÷ 5
● JPY/USD (indexed to Jun 2025, ×3)
● Gold (log-indexed to 1986)
■ Recession (FRED)
Macro Indicator Dashboard
Signal: percentile rank vs last 20 years — green ≤ 25th, red ≥ 75th (direction-adjusted)
| Indicator | Current | 1yr change | Signal | Distribution | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE (YoY) | 3.4% | +0.6pp | ● | Fed's inflation target | |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.7% | +1.3pp | ● | Headline consumer prices | |
| 5yr Breakeven | 2.3% | -0.2pp | ● | Market inflation expectation | |
| 10y−3m Spread | 0.7% | +0.7pp | ● | Recession predictor (Estrella-Mishkin) | |
| 10y−2y Spread | 0.4% | -0.2pp | ● | Yield curve | |
| HY Credit Spread | 2.7% | -0.2pp | ● | Financial stress; widens before recessions | |
| 10yr TIPS Real Rate | 2.3% | +0.3pp | ● | Real interest rate; gold proxy | |
| Initial Claims | 208K | -13.0pp | ● | Weekly jobless claims; leads UNRATE | |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | -0.1pp | ● | U-3 unemployment rate | |
| Industrial Production (YoY) | 1.1% | +0.6pp | ● | Real economy pulse | |
| S&P 500 | 7450 | 23.6% | ● | Broad equity market | |
| Gold | $3997/oz | 19.1% | ● | Gold futures (GC=F) |
Source: FRED (PCEPILFE, CPIAUCSL, T5YIE, T10Y3M, T10Y2Y, BAMLH0A0HYM2, DFII10, ICSA, UNRATE, INDPRO, SP500)