Economics
0.0000
0.0500
0.1000
0.1500 oz/barrel
1990
2000
2010
2020
Oil Priced in Gold
Barrels of oil per troy oz of gold
Source: Stooq (XAU/USD), FRED (DCOILWTICO)
0.00000
0.00100
0.00200
0.00300
0.00400 oz/$
1990
2000
2010
2020
Dollar Priced in Gold
Troy oz of gold per US dollar
Source: Stooq (XAU/USD)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Macro-trends
Source: FRED
● 10y−2y treasury spread
● NASDAQ (log-indexed)
● Unemployment (indexed to Jan 2020)
● Fed funds rate ÷ 5
● JPY/USD (indexed to Jun 2025, ×3)
● Gold (log-indexed to 1986)
■ Recession (FRED)
Macro Indicator Dashboard
Signal: percentile rank vs last 20 years — green ≤ 25th, red ≥ 75th (direction-adjusted)
| Indicator | Current | 1yr change | Signal | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE (YoY) | 3.1% | +0.3pp | ● | Fed's inflation target |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.7% | -0.3pp | ● | Headline consumer prices |
| 5yr Breakeven | 2.6% | +0.1pp | ● | Market inflation expectation |
| 10y−3m Spread | 0.5% | +0.6pp | ● | Recession predictor (Estrella-Mishkin) |
| 10y−2y Spread | 0.6% | +0.2pp | ● | Yield curve |
| HY Credit Spread | 3.2% | -0.1pp | ● | Financial stress; widens before recessions |
| 10yr TIPS Real Rate | 1.9% | -0.1pp | ● | Real interest rate; gold proxy |
| Initial Claims | 213K | -10.0pp | ● | Weekly jobless claims; leads UNRATE |
| Unemployment | 4.4% | +0.4pp | ● | U-3 unemployment rate |
| Industrial Production (YoY) | 1.4% | +0.6pp | ● | Real economy pulse |
| S&P 500 | 6894 | 14.2% | ● | Broad equity market |
| Gold | $5011/oz | 67.9% | ● | XAU/USD spot price |
Source: FRED (PCEPILFE, CPIAUCSL, T5YIE, T10Y3M, T10Y2Y, BAMLH0A0HYM2, DFII10, ICSA, UNRATE, INDPRO, SP500)